ITU/ITC Regional Seminar on Network Evolution to NGN and Fixed Mobile Convergence
Session 3.3. 1 Trends for Fixed and Mobile users growth based on statistics data for ICT Indicators
Ignat Stanev
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004
Session 3.3.1 - 1
Networks Evolution Factors
User behaviour and usage trends General technology advancements Evolution of core and access networks Evolution of terminals Society
Visions & Scenarios
Economic trends Business
Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical challenges
Individual technical aspects
Technology development
Architecture and topology
Protocols evolution
Management
……..
Session 3.3.1 - 2
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004
1
Mobile and Fixed users
World telephone subscribers, millions
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1982 85 88 91 94 97 2000 03
Mobile Fixed
(1.4 B)
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004
Session 3.3.1 - 3
Impact of Cellular mobile development on the Fixed network:
The impact of the Cellular mobile development on the fixed network is based on the statistics for: v Fixed network teledensity v Percentage of residential lines v Cellular mobile teledensity The compound annual network growth of the telephone lines and the mobile subscribers could also serve as indicator
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004 Session 3.3.1 - 4
2
Network growth (compound annual rate in %) :
Network growth (compound annual growth rate in %) Low Income Lower Middle Income Upper Middle Income High Income Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania WORLD New telephone lines added 2000-2001 New mobile subscribers added 2000-2001
8,3 17,2 7,4 0,3 7,6 2,1 12,4 2,4 0,2 6,0
72,4 70,5 27,8 14,8 51,0 21,2 38,4 20,0 26,7 26,7
World telecommunication/ ICT indicators ITU Database
Session 3.3.1 - 5
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004
Fixed and mobile users growth (high income) :
Main fixed lines
100,00 90,00 80,00 70,00 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 0,00 Italy Spain Sweden Norway
2000
2001
2002
Mobile subscribers
100,00 90,00 80,00 70,00 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 0,00
Italy Spain Sweden Norway
2000
2001
2002
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004
Session 3.3.1 - 6
3
Impact of Cellular mobile on Fixed teledensity: teledensity:
Case of Italy: Year 1997: fixed teledensity 44, 8 % , residential lines 76,5 % cellular mobile teledensity 20.5 % Year 2000: fixed teledensity 47,4 % , residential lines 67,1 % cellular mobile teledensity 73.7 % Year 2002: fixed teledensity 48,1 % , residential lines 79,2*% cellular mobile teledensity 93.9 % * for 2001
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004 Session 3.3.1 - 7
Long term / strategic network planning :
Based on long-term forecasting - for urban, sub areas, populated places, etc.
y (e.g. no. of subscribers) Saturation limit Logistic or Gompertz' trend
Demand
long-term forecast
medium-term forecast bridging Time
Linear trend
Exponential trend 0
Beginning interval Average interval
Time
Demand/service forecasting uses different methods, including trend methods based on saturation limit
Saturation interval
Problem: how to define a saturation limit
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004 Session 3.3.1 - 8
4
Fixed network users potential
Highly developed countries (close to saturation):
Country Population (in thousands) 19,157 30,750 58,892 82,260 57,298 126,919 3,831 47,300 40,600 8,881 7,204 59,766 275,130 Teledensity [%] 53,86 63,45 56,89 65,08 48,07 55,83 44,81 48,86 50,62 68,20 74,42 59,086 64,58 Average household size 2,64 2,65 2,46 2,16 2,71 2,70 2,91 3,04 3,25 2,22 2,39 2,38 2,58 Teledensity per house hold [%] 101,2 98,2 94,0 95,5 96,9 116,8 103,0 105,5 100,8 98,7 99,6 93,0 94,1 Percent of residential lines 75,0 63,9 69,2 77,0 79,2 75,8 78,5 74,1 83,5 67,9 60,0 71,0 67,6
Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan New Zealand Republic of Korea Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States of America
• teledensity per house-hold about 100%
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
•ratio residential to business from 2 / 1 to 3 / 1
Session 3.3.1 - 9
Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004
Simple method to evaluate fixed subscribers potential :
Assumptions: v Teledensity per householdin the highly developed countries - around 100% (one connection per household) v Ratio residential to business subscribers - in the range 2 to 1 - 3 to 1 , possibly depending on the strength of the economy Note: Average household size in the highly developed countries - between 2 and 3 Simple method: v Fixed network subscribers potential is number of households increased by 1/3 for high potential economies or by 1/4 for others
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004
Session 3.3.1 - 10
5
Application of the simple method for evaluating fixed subscribers potential :
Bulgaria : 2,9 Million households - 3,9 Million potential fixed subscribers (50 %) – now 36,7 % teledensity for 2,7 HH size China : 347 Million households – 462 Million potential fixed subscribers (36 %) – now 16,7 % teledensity for 3,7 HH size South Africa : 10,2 Million households – 13,6 Million potential fixed subscribers (30 %) – now 11,0 % teledensity for 4,5 HH size Russia: 52 Million households – 78 Million potential fixed subscribers (53 %) – now 24,2 % teledensity for 2,8 HH size
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004 Session 3.3.1 - 11
Cellular mobile network users potential
Case of Italy:
Cellular mobile teledensity from ITU database - 93.9 %
Correlation with population - brake down by age
4,5 % of population below 6 4 % of population above 80
• user potential of about 92 % expected
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004 Session 3.3.1 - 12
6
Cellular mobile network users potential
Highly developed countries:
Country Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan New Zealand Republic of Korea Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States Population
(in thousands)
Population below 6 [%] 4,5 4,6 5,1 -
Population above 80 [%] 4,0 3,7 5,0 -
Cellular mobile Teledensity [ % ] 63,98 37,71 64,70 72,75 93,87 63,66 62,17 67,95 82,42 88,88 78,93 84,07 48,82
19,662 31,414 59,637 82,537 56,464 127,440 3,939 47,600 40,683 8,943 7,281 59,088 288,370
• user potential of 90% to 92 %
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004 Session 3.3.1 - 13
Comparison of traffic for fixed line telephony and mobile telephony
Case of Norway:
Traffic minutes for fixed line telephony
Internet Internet from fixed Voice from mobile Mobile
Voice from fixed Fixed
Traffic minutes for mobile telephones
• ratio fixed / mobile – above 3 / 1
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004 Session 3.3.1 - 14
7
User behaviour and usage trends
Findings of the United Nations : Ø Ø all growth in population will concentrate in urban areas, no growth in rural areas most of the growth will concentrate in urban areas of less developed regions Users will concentrate in urban areas , as areas, urban areas put higher pressure on the individual to "do what the others do" and from technical point it is easier to connect people in urban areas
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004 Session 3.3.1 - 15
Teledensity statistics for largest cities largest
Population as % of total Large city teledensity [%] Rest of country teledensity [%] Overall teledensity [%]
Low Income Lower Middle Income Upper Middle Income High Income
6,0 5,8 16,1 10,8
9,26 24,84 30,77 57,49
2,15 7,30 21,10 54,83
2,54 8,77 22,94 55,21
1 : 4,3 1 : 3,4 1 : 1,5 1 : 1,05
Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania WORLD
12 13,6 4,8 10,9 17,8 7,7
6,42 34,8 25,97 48,24 45,97 17,4
1,39 21,72 6,94 30,19 36,77 25,25
1,99 11,39 7,84 31,98 38,38 9,20
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004
Session 3.3.1 - 16
8
IT density as bases for new services requiring more bandwidth
Density statistics for Information technology :
Internet hosts per 10 000 inhabitants Internet users per 10 000 inhabitants PCs per 100 inhabitants
Low Income Lower Middle Income Upper Middle Income High Income
0,98 4,32 78,69 1 484,20
62,21 264,94 992,66 3 992,87
0,59 2,45 8,24 37,31
CIS m CEEm
Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania WORLD
3,38 1 332,97 28,73 191,47 885,26 232,66
84,89 2 164,28 433,97 1 804,54 2 771,59 820,81
1,06 26,57 2,18 17,94 39,91 7,74
Ratio Low Income/High Income :
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
1 : 64
1 : 15
1 : 63
1 : 15
Session 3.3.1 - 17
Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004
IT penetration in EEC and CIS countries :
Country
Armenia Azerbaijan Moldova Tajikistan Ukraine Uzbekistan Albania White Russia Bosnia Bulgaria Kazakhstan Latvia Lithuania Rumania Russia Macedonia Turkmenistan Yugoslavia Croatia Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Pola nd Slovak Republic TotalPopulation (M) 3,79 7,78 4,39 6,13 50,30 25,26 3,97 10,25 4,07 8,11 16,09 2,35 3,68 22,39 146,76 2,04 4,84 10,68 4,66 10,14 1,43 9,97 38,63 5,40 Internet Users (10'000) 142,05 32,13 136,67 5,22 119,29 108,73 25,19 411,87 110,65 807,69 61,64 723,10 679,16 446,63 293,00 342,47 16,55 561,80 558,91 2564,10 3 004,59 1 484,01 983,72 1 203,26 PCs (100 ) 0,79 ... 1,59 ... 1,83 ... 0,76 ... ... 5,19 ... 15,31 7,06 3,57 4,97 ... ... 2,34 8,59 17,75 17,48 10,03 8,54 14,81
High Income:
3 993
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004
Session 3.3.1 - 18
9
Telecom Indicators for CEE and CIS countries :
v v Subscribers potentialvery high for many of the countries Information technology below 10 % for most countries about 40 % for high income countries
Note:Still plenty of analogue equipment in the fixed network mostly in rural areas
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004
Session 3.3.1 - 19
Conclusion for user behaviour and usage trends
Ø There is still considerable potential of telecom users in the world, most of all in the developing countries Users in the developing countries are concentrated and will continue to concentrate in urban areas Traditional voice service is expected to dominate in the developing countries for the low density of Information technology
Ø
Ø
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Moscow (Russia), 27-30 April 2004
Session 3.3.1 - 20
10